RA's Oscar Picks

In preparation for our Oscar coverage here at Routinely Average, I wanted to get a written record of my picks out there just in case I go 24 for 24. By the way, I'm doing it in reverse order so to get to my best picture pick you have to read everything else. Or I guess just scroll to the bottom. So here it is. The extra long RA preview column. For a refresher, all the nominees are listed here.

We are adding a late edit here with RA contributor Michael's picks. Be sure to check it out.

Best Live Action Short: This is one of the few categories that I know little to nothing about. I haven't seen any of the five nominees, nor do I have a whole lot of experience with the medium. From the various Oscar pieces I have read from people far more informed than I, the consensus seems to be that either Na Wewe ( which depicts ethnic violence in Burundi), or Wish 143 (which is about a young boy with a terminal illness). Cheery stuff. Based on nothing in particular, I predict the Oscar will go to.... Na Wewe.

Best Live Action Short: Having only seen the trailers of these nominees, I'm going to go with Na Wewe for tackling very serious subject matter (ethnic violence in Africa) - under the same principle that Holocaust films often do well at the Oscars.

Best Animated Short: I have seen two of the five entries here. Pixar's charming Day & Night, and the beautifully animated Madagascar, a Journey Diary. While I loved both of these shorts, I am always drawn more to story structure and character development than visuals so my vote would go to Day & Night. The internet buzz seems to be pushing the short adapted from a children's book, The Gruffalo. It certainly possesses the star power to put it over the top with voice contributions from Helena Bonham Carter, Tom Wilkinson, and John Hurt among others. I'll stick with the experts for now and say The Gruffalo takes home the prize.

Pixar's Day & Night

Best Animated Short: I know Day and Night is a favorite here, simply for being Pixar, but I think for this category story takes a back seat to visuals, and nothing comes close to the creative and stunningly beautiful animation of the rollicking travelogue, Madagascar, carnet de voyage.

Best Documentary Short: I have not seen any of these, but the choice seems to be between Strangers No More (the story of a school for children from all over the world in Tel Aviv) and The Warriors of Qiugang (an environmental battle in rural China). Warriors has the cooler name and also has my vote for the Oscar.

Best Documentary Short: If a heartwarming tale of children of various ethnicities and nationalities learning together under the guidance of determined schoolteachers isn't a recipe for success at the Academy Awards, I don't know what is. Strangers No More takes it.

Best Documentary Feature: This was a very strong category this year, as the critically acclaimed and much discussed Waiting For Superman couldn't even garner a nomination. Here there seem to be three potential victors. The first is Exit Through the Gift Shop which is the story of the reclusive, infamous graffiti artist Banksy and the world of street art. Next is Inside Job, the tale of insider trading and the market crash in 2008. And finally, we have Restrepo which follows one platoon of American soldiers for one year in Afghanistan. I think Restrepo and Inside Job are both a bit too political and that will shy voters away, so my vote goes to Exit Through the Gift Shop.

Best Documentary Feature: I predict Restrepo with its shocking look into the war on terror, rides the wake of last year's The Hurt Locker to pick up this award.

Best Achievement in Visual Effects: This is usually a fun one where movies that aren't competing in other categories have a shot to take home an Oscar. Unfortunately, Inception had to be so darn good they went and ruined that. It would be a massive upset (and a travesty), if Christopher Nolan and crew didn't take home the golden statue here. The only possible dark horse is Alice in Wonderland. My vote goes to Inception.


Best Achievement in Visual Effects: Inception. Coolest effects by a mile, and most of them done without CGI.


Best Achievement in Sound Editing: This category gets a bit too technical for me to offer an informative breakdown, but from what I've heard, Inception is a run away favorite here too, so I'll hop on the bandwagon.

Best Achievement in Sound Editing: I don't know much about the creation of sound effects, and I wouldn't be altogether surprised with Tron: Legacy scooping up it's only award, but my final answer is Inception.

Best Achievement in Sound Mixing: Again Inception is getting the most buzz. I have seen some picks for The Social Network in this category, but the consensus is that the Inception sound crew did some pretty incredible stuff. So for the third category in a row... Inception gets the Oscar.

Best Achievement in Sound Mixing: Inception again steals a technical award.

Best Original Song: It would be a pretty big surprise if Toy Story 3 and Pixar muse Randy Newman didn't snag a win here with "We Belong Together."

Best Original Song: Randy Newman's "We Belong Together" seems the obvious choice here.

Best Original Score: Another pretty competitive category here. The King's Speech and The Social Network both had excellent scores, but I thought the music for Inception was outstanding and really helped set the mood. I'm picking a slight upset here, but I think Inception takes home the Oscar.

Best Original Score: This is one of the toughest decisions, because all of these nominees have some really nice music, but I have to think that the Inception will win this for its pulsing, driving, emotionally intense score from start to finish.

Best Achievement in Makeup: This one is a gimme. Everyone is picking The Wolfman to win, and it should. For those of you who have doubts, just glance slightly to the right. The Wolfman is my prediction.

Best Achievement in Makeup: The Wolfman, 'nuff said.

Best Achievement in Costume Design: This is an interesting group of films here. There is the genre piece in True Grit (see the RA review here), the period piece in The King's Speech, two fantasy dominated films in The Tempest and Alice in Wonderland, and a portrait of the uber-wealthy in Italy with I Am Love. My pick, based purely on personal enjoyment of the costumes, is Alice in Wonderland.

Best Achievement in Costume Design: I was tempted by several nominees here, but I think a period piece about royalty is enough to tip the scale in favor of the Oscar heavyweight The King's Speech.

Best Achievement in Art Directing: I am torn on this category. I thought the art direction in True Grit was absolutely flawless. Some of the images in the movie possessed such an austere beauty. The internet buzz however, seems to be suggesting this is a battle between The King's Speech and Alice in Wonderland. While in my heart I want True Grit to win, my prediction is that The King's Speech is going to have a big night and this category will be a part of it.

Best Achievement in Art Directing: I predict the fantastical world of Alice in Wonderland will win out in this category.

Best Achievement in Editing: Another very strong category. The Social Network and 127 Hours were both outstandingly edited films taking very unique and entertaining approaches. I think my favorite however was the job done on Black Swan. The editing was a major part of that film and is some of the best I've ever seen. Most people are predicting a win for The Social Network, but my guess is Black Swan pulls the upset.

Best Achievement in Editing: This one will go to the frequent flash backs and forwards and the snappy, sharp, pacing of The Social Network.

Best Achievement in Cinematography: Inception's Wally Pfister did a spectacular job on his film, but the signs are pointing to a long overdue life time achievement award for the long time Coen brothers collaborator Roger Deakins and True Grit. The Coen's deliberate western will pull off the victory here.

True Grit

Best Achievement in Cinematography: I'm with Adam on this one, an award for True Grit is in order here. That film was beautifully shot, acknowledgment of Deakin's work is overdue, and this will give a little diversity to the bigger categories of the night.


Best Foreign Language Film: The debate is between the Mexican Biutiful and the Danish In a Better World. The difference will be Javier Bardem bringing the star power to Biutiful and the film will ride him to an Oscar win.

Best Foreign Language Film: I'm going to go with Biutiful, as it is supposed to be a truly remarkable performance from Bardem.

Best Animated Feature Film: Many people have made this joke before me. Many will make it after me. They should just call this the Pixar award. Toy Story 3 in a landslide. How to Train Your Dragon (see RA review here) is the distant dark horse here.

Best Animated Feature Film: Here's perhaps my only major underdog pick. I don't think the Academy can keep giving this to Pixar indefinitely, and a threequel, no matter how excellent, may be a good place to give someone else a chance. It would also be an opportunity to honor Sylvain Chomet, whose gorgeous film Les Triplettes de Belleville was nominated in 2004 but lost out to a deserving Finding Nemo. My prediction is The Illusionist.

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network is the run away favorite here. I think True Grit deserves some consideration for doing an excellent job bringing the Charles Portis novel to life. The fascinating, minimalist Winter's Bone is also terrific, but the Oscar will go to Aaron Sorkin and The Social Network.


Best Adapted Screenplay: One of tonight's giants, The Social Network.


Best Original Screenplay: This is another category with a clear favorite. The Kids Are All Right is the outside possibility, but The King's Speech will snag another here.

Best Original Screenplay: The other giant, The King's Speech, continues the fairly even split.

Best Supporting Actress: I thought this was a fairly weak category this year. Hailee Steinfeld was terrific as young Mattie in True Grit, but I wasn't wowed by any of the other performances. Helena Bonham Carter was strong in The King's Speech, but not outstanding. Melissa Leo could provide the upset with her performance in The Fighter, but Steinfeld, for her debut film, will win the Academy Award here.

Best Supporting Actress: I heard a theory that Melissa Leo and Amy Adams from The Fighter could split the Academy vote, thus giving it to the young but extremely talented Hailee Steinfeld for her performance in True Grit. This theory suits me, as I thought she is deserving, so I'll go with that.

Best Supporting Actor: In contrast to the Best Supporting Actress nominees, I thought this was a very strong year for the supporting actors. Christian Bale is the favorite for his role in The Fighter, Geoffrey Rush is the dark horse for The King's Speech, and Jeremy Renner was intense in The Town (see RA review here). I actually think the actor who is getting the least press had the strongest performance. That would be John Hawkes as the brooding, unpredictable Teardrop in Winter's Bone. However, personal preferences aside, my prediction is Bale takes home his first ever Oscar.

Jennifer Lawrence and John Hawkes in Winter's Bone

Best Supporting Actor: I predict Geoffrey Rush cashes in on The King's Speech's big night.


Best Actress: This is also a much stronger field than the supporting actresses with Michelle Williams from Blue Valentine, and Jennifer Lawrence from Winter's Bone turning in pitch perfect performances in their respective films. Annette Bening is also wonderful in The Kids Are All Right and has the sentimental vote, but everyone (and myself included) will be shocked if Natalie Portman doesn't win for her work in Black Swan. Watching her act in that movie was physically exhausting. I can't imagine how demanding that role must have been to actually act out.

Best Actress: Word on the street is this will go to Natalie Portman for her intense physical preparation in addition to her performance, and I see no reason to dispute this.


Best Actor: This might be the easiest category to pick in the entire show. Heck, it might be the easiest pick in the last ten  years of the show. Colin Firth as King George the VI was perfect. He carries The King's Speech turning in a confident but charming performance as the stuttering King. If hell freezes over, then James Franco has an outside shot for some very strong stuff in 127 Hours, but I wouldn't put money on it.

Best Actor: I'm ashamed to say that I haven't yet had the chance to see The King's Speech, but buzz alone makes this one a no-brainer. It's Colin Firth without a doubt.


Best Achievement in Directing: This is another category where my favorite nominee will not win. I thought Darren Aronofsky did an exquisite job taking us inside the world of elite ballet, and all the pressures that accompany it. His film, Black Swan, is an intense, terrifying, and unsettling piece of film making that should win the Oscar. The actual winner will come down to either David Fincher for The Social Network, or Tom Hooper for The King's Speech. Both of those films are excellent so I won't be too broken up when Aronofsky gets passed over. My pick is the Oscar will go to Fincher.

Natalie Portman in Black Swan

Best Achievement in Directing: David Fincher's visionary approach to the drama of the minds behind the creation of Facebook will be rewarded.


Best Picture: Well, you finally made it. This is the second year now that we have ten nominees to choose from in this category, and all of the films were very good. My personal favorite film of the year was Black Swan, closely followed by 127 Hours, but both of these films are little better than long shot contenders. The real battle is between The Social Network and The King's Speech. The Social Network is the stylized story of the creation of Facebook, and the drawn out legal battles of inventor Mark Zuckerberg. The film is very well made, edgy, and has a lot of relevance for the modern audience. The King's Speech is a charming, sentimental tale of a stuttering King who, thanks to a confident Australian speech therapist, was able to grow into a symbol of national pride. My pick for the winner of the Academy Award for Best Picture is The King's Speech.

Best Picture: This year we will again see the rare occurrence that is becoming more common at the Oscars, and that is the Best Director/Best Picture split. The Social Network and The King's Speech will share the accolades tonight, but The King's Speech is going to come away with the biggy. Michael out.

Thanks for sticking with us everybody. I hope to see you all back Sunday night at 8pm so we can all see just how wrong we are. Let me know if you have some predictions of your own in the comments.